love the puck

Thursday, July 28, 2005

With the release of the NHL schedule comes the realization that we are approaching puck drop on the 05-06 season with question marks still surrounding many teams, and many players. The Hot Topic yesterday was the news that Peter Forsberg and Markus Naslund have expressed they would like to play together. Unfortunately for the Canucks, they just won't be able to swing it. When I threw some quick figures down, I put Forsberg and Naslund taking just 4 million a year, which would be a cut for them, just to see if it was possible. The problem for Vancouver remains that if they did sign those two premiere forwards they would have 19 million dollars locked up in just 6 players. There is no way to keep Bertuzzi, Jovo, Naslund and add Forsberg. They would have just 20 million dollars to sign about 20 players, including Brendan Morrison, Matt Cooke, Matthias Ohlund, Marek Malik, Sami Salo, Jason King, Bryan Allen, the Sedin's (who are finally coming along, would be a shame to let them go now that they've waited so long) and a goalie of any kind, whether it be Cloutier or taking a run at Khabibulin.

Teams that could afford to have Naslund and Forsberg don their uni's included; Minnesota, Nashville, Chicago, Boston, Carolina, Washington, and the pick of the litter, Florida. Florida has some signing to do, but with their young nucleus and lack of big name restricted Free Agents (excluding Luongo) they could have some room under the cap to lock up these two dynamic players. Jacques Martin is a great coach, Keenan is a respected GM, and Florida offers great weather, and the potential to win. Olli Jokinen is coming along, Bouwmeester, Horton and Stephen Weiss are young, but talented and Naslund and Forsberg could bring a tonne of attention and hype to south Florida.

Deep in my heart of hearts though, I could see them both taking a significant paycut to play together somewhere that has a chance of winning a cup. It's too hard to tell how things will shake down right now, but signing two players of this calibre will be very tough for any team that already has some great players on board.

Joe Thornton is not happy with the Boston Bruins. It's been a few years since Joe has been happy in Boston, ever since they started trading all the players that were good, and since they started bashing him in the media, while he was playing with torn cartiledge in his rib. And now this. A 5 year offer, which is worth less than his qualifying offer would have been. Joe's agent is questioning publicly if Boston knows just how good Thornton actually is. The relationship between Joe and the Bruins will come to an end after this season and Joe will test the free agent waters, which will lead him to Toronto most likely. He has expressed interest to play there, and there is not a player on the Leafs I wouldn't move out of the way to get big Joe. The ownership is Boston just doesn't get it. They hit the gold mine with Patrice Bergeron, lets see how they screw that one up in a couple of years.

And now, my beloved Leafs. What a tangled web they weave, and things are looking a little messy in Toronto. Scotty asked me if the Leafs can get under the cap and still make the playoffs, and I'm telling all of you here right now- absolutely. The Leafs core group of Sundin, Belfour, McCabe, Tucker, Kaberle and Stajan is a pretty good one to have already under contract. Due to their age, you can now sign Joe Nieuwendyk and Gary Roberts for very cheap, especially since they both want to play in Toronto. I don't want to see an offer tendered to Alex Mogilny just because he's too injury prone and too expensive. If you have to give him more than 1.5, just let him go. I'm not worried about Ed Belfour. He's had a whole year to rest that tender back, and his style of goaltending doesn't require him to be insanely athletic a la Marty Brodeur. Belfour is a cerebral goalie, who relies on great decision making and sound technique. Even with smaller equipment, he'll get his body in front of that puck. Jeff O'Neill will come to T.O. and singlehandly replace Antropov, Ponikarovsky and Domi. Domi will likely sign with the Pens to become enforcer for Mario and Sid the Kid. The Leafs need to sign Pilar, bring up Coliacovo, Wellwood and possibly Brendan Bell. If they can get Leetch for a small fee, that's great, but I hope they don't break the bank for him. There has been a lot of rumblings that Jason Allison is coming to Toronto, which I support whole heartedly, and if the Big E lands here, I don't think you pay him more than 1 million. He's a liability at this point in his career, and shouldn't try to steal anyone's money. Come to Toronto for cheap Eric, it's your home and if you play well you'll be a god again.

The big problem in Toronto comes in two years or so. When Joe and Gary just can't do it anymore and Mats is getting on in years there are no young guys on the way up. So the free agent market is where to do it. Get O'Neill and Allison this year, Thornton and a solid third D man next year and the team is right back on track. Even more importantly they have to draft well this year and next year, and every year from now on. No more Alex Steens, no more Luca Cerada, and if you get another guy like Brad Boyes, don't trade him away for an Owen Nolan.

Another Canadian team to look at is the Edmonton Oilers. There is a lot of money for the Oilers to work with, the only question mark is how they will attract a big name player to come out west. It's not even that the Oilers have a bad team, they're just stuck in the middle. They might make the playoffs, but then again they might not, and that isn't exactly screaming "cup contender!" at any free agents. But on the positive side they may be able to lure someone out there with the promise of building around them, and making them the man. The Oilers have a great captain, and a solid young team, but they have a lot of role players, meaning the right piece of scoring and consistency could make them more dangerous. That being said, they still need a big year in goal from Jussi Maarkenen, because right now, he's a large question mark.

The suspense in the Scott Niedeymayer sweepstakes got a little thicker when he announced he'd play for any time willing to give him the max. I think that's media smoke screens, because Scotty is bred to win, not to just collect paycheques. Still no definite rumours as to where he'll go. Obviously Vancouver is an option, Calgary is close to Cranbrook, but they don't need him on D. They need forwards. He won't likely land in Toronto, because the books just wouldn't balance that way. The draft is coming up, and my next post will come Saturday night. No need to do a preview, just an analysis of the outcome.

Posted by Jon at 7:44 AM | | e-mail me