love the puck

Saturday, July 30, 2005

Draft Day. The biggest day of these young men's lives. The day they become the actual property of an NHL franchise that fancies them. Here's my take.

1. Pittsburgh Penguins- Sidney Crosby- What!!! Did he say S- oh nevermind, he did say Sidney Crosby. False alarm.

2. Anaheim Mighty Ducks- Bobby Ryan- This pick doesn't suprise me in the least. Burkie has a lot of young talent, but it's all skill, with the exception of Ryan Getzlaf, who has the best of both worlds. Ryan gives the Ducks a large body presence, with good hands and a nose for the net. Their second powerplay unit of Perry, Getzlaf and Ryan will play a nice second fiddle to Fedorov, Chistov and Lupul's orchestra.

3. Carolina Hurricanes- Jack Johnson- This would have been a nice fit in Anaheim too, but like the Ducks Carolina has no one on D. Johnson will have to fall flat on his face not to make their team this year- if he's as good as advertised, which is hard to tell sometimes with the U.S. Under 18 team.

4. Minnesota Wild- Benoit Pouliot- I just love this pick. From all accounts Pouliot is like Vincent Lecavier Lite. All the skills, just needs to get that mean streak, but Vinny has got it figured out, and he works out with Pouliot in Montreal. Minnesota gets a golden pick here.

5. Montreal Canadiens- Cary Price- I don't have anything against Price. He's a good kid and a good goalie. But Jose Theodore mans the net, and they could have bolstered their blueline. Bob Gainey kind of shocked me here.

6. Columbus Blue Jackets- Gilbert Brule - After seeing him play in person a handful of times he finally grew on me. If it wasn't for the new look NHL I don't know if he'd go this high. But he carries a nice balance of skill, grit and a work ethic that would put a lot of pro's to shame. Columbus is going to be a great place to play hockey this year. A lot of exciting young talent, and a good fan base.

7. Chicago Blackhawks- Jack Skille- This makes sense on paper. The Blackhawks have a lot of young guys on D, so they need to fill up the front line. I think Ryan O'Marra would have been good here, because he's got lot's of heart and I think Chicago needs that. But apparently this Skille kid is the real deal, but he's not going to play for a few years.

8. San Jose Sharks (via Atlanta)- Devin Setoguchi- I love this pick for both teams. I think Setoguchi is a unique mix of skills and toughness, and although is a little streaky, he'll be good in San Jose. If he went to a team where he was asked to do too much, then I could see some problems, but in San Jose there is already such a good cast of players, he'll be able to ease his way in.

9. Ottawa Senators- Brian Lee- I don't know how you pick this guy over Mark Staal, but I am glad, cause Staal is a great player, and I don't want him in Ottawa where he can burn us for years. I saw Lee at the World Juniors, and he only played a couple of shifts, but he got danced around like Ben Affleck at a J-Lo houseparty. He won't see the NHL for a few years.

10. Vancouver Canucks- Luc Bourdon- Now I've seen Bourdon play a fair bit, and he's going to be a solid NHL'er. But that's it. How do you pick him over Mark Staal? Especially since in Vancouver, there are a tonne of solid defenseman. Let's get Staaler out there to get them some skill on the point to help Jovo.

11. Los Angeles Kings- Anze Kopitar- Great skill set, I just think he's a touch on the soft side. Like, if he get knocked around a bit, it could take him off his game. L.A. is no doubt trying to replace some of the skills that once roamed around that city in Martin Straka.

12. New York Rangers(via Atlanta/SJ)- Mark Staal- In some sort of cruel twist of fate, Mark Staal gets overlooked multiple times to end up on the Rangers. I'm so sorry Mark. At least Eric will be able to relate to you, cause Carolina sucks hard too.

13. Buffalo Sabres- Marek Zagrapan- This guy is smooth like Peanut butter. But he looks at times like he could just care less. If he ever decides to play a full game like there's something to prove (and there is always something to prove) he'll be a great NHL player.

14. Washington Capitals- Sasha Pokulok- Who? Whatever, this is why washington is going nowhere.

15. New York Islanders- Ryan O'Marra- Finally. I think this kid is a great prospect, sort of like this years Mike Richards. New York needs a tonne of leadership, especially if Aucoin leaves town. At the very least maybe Alexei Yashin could learn a thing or too about leading.

16. Atlanta Thrashers (via N.Y.)- Alex Bourret- I like what Don Waddell's plan was, to trade down, but he should have tried to get some veterans to complement the great young nucleus in ATL. But then again, the pick went to New York, and they have none. Oh well, Bourrett is a fireball, energy waiting to happen. I saw him wreck Bobby Ryan's shoulder in the Top Prospect's game. Since then, I've like this kid's game. He'll hammer you, then put the puck in your net.

17. Phoenix Coyotes- Martin Hanzal- I think this is a perfect fit for Hanzal. He's got talent coming out his ears, but at the under 18 worlds, he had a tendency to dive a lot. He won't get away with that while Wayne is on board, and while the Golden Brett and Shane Doan look on.

18. Nashville Predators- Ryan Parent- Damnit!! I wanted him to come to T.O. at 21. Nashville is going to have one hell of a blueline in a few years. Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and now Parent. Wow.

19. Detroit Red Wings- Jakub Kindl- A huge sleeper. I think he'll be a great fit in Detroit, but not for a few years. I think he's going to be one of those guys that blossoms late in his career.

20. Florida Panthers (via Philadelphia)- Kenndal McArdle- Does a little bit of everything well, nothing spectacular, but I think he'll play a lot years in the league.

21. Toronto Maple Leafs- Tukka Rask- Rask is a good goalie, but he's very small, and with the equipment getting smaller, he'll have to be very, very, very good to play. In a few years.

22. Boston Bruins- Matt Lashoff- Now we're getting towards guys I've never heard of.

23. New Jersey Devils- Niklas Bergfors- This is a good pick. New Jersey never fails to do a lot with their late round picks. Bergfors has a good skill set, but will need to play much stronger to make it in the NHL.

24. St. Louis Blues- T.J. Oshie- I'm not even going to pretend like I know.

25. Edmonton Oilers- Andrew Cogliano- Zoom, zoom. This guy is world class speed. Another fella that benefits from the promise of less obstruction.

26. Calgary Flames- Matt Pelech- I have a hard time understanding why Sutter would draft another defenceman. Their defense is what makes them special. They need bodies up front, and there were good players left on the board. Makes no sense.

There was nothing else really of note in the first round. All in all it was a great draft, and it will be exciting when training camp comes around. Who's this years Nathan Horton without the messed up shoulder? Who's this years early flame out like Marc-Andre Fleury? Can't wait to find out.

Jeff O'Neill is a Maple Leaf for 1.5 million a year. I hate to say I told you so, but I think I told you so. I think this is a fantastic move for O'Neill and for the Leafs. He'll inject some serious scoring prowess to their powerplay, and unlike Carolina, Toronto has some players that can set him up. Hopefully his regular shifts come with Joe Nieuwendyk, Joe loves to share that puck. And unlike Owen Nolan, O'Neill can bury it when it's put on a platter for him.

Okay, so now comes the furious push towards free agency, I'll be back tomorrow for a Free Agent preview.

Posted by Jon at 6:27 PM | | e-mail me

Thursday, July 28, 2005

With the release of the NHL schedule comes the realization that we are approaching puck drop on the 05-06 season with question marks still surrounding many teams, and many players. The Hot Topic yesterday was the news that Peter Forsberg and Markus Naslund have expressed they would like to play together. Unfortunately for the Canucks, they just won't be able to swing it. When I threw some quick figures down, I put Forsberg and Naslund taking just 4 million a year, which would be a cut for them, just to see if it was possible. The problem for Vancouver remains that if they did sign those two premiere forwards they would have 19 million dollars locked up in just 6 players. There is no way to keep Bertuzzi, Jovo, Naslund and add Forsberg. They would have just 20 million dollars to sign about 20 players, including Brendan Morrison, Matt Cooke, Matthias Ohlund, Marek Malik, Sami Salo, Jason King, Bryan Allen, the Sedin's (who are finally coming along, would be a shame to let them go now that they've waited so long) and a goalie of any kind, whether it be Cloutier or taking a run at Khabibulin.

Teams that could afford to have Naslund and Forsberg don their uni's included; Minnesota, Nashville, Chicago, Boston, Carolina, Washington, and the pick of the litter, Florida. Florida has some signing to do, but with their young nucleus and lack of big name restricted Free Agents (excluding Luongo) they could have some room under the cap to lock up these two dynamic players. Jacques Martin is a great coach, Keenan is a respected GM, and Florida offers great weather, and the potential to win. Olli Jokinen is coming along, Bouwmeester, Horton and Stephen Weiss are young, but talented and Naslund and Forsberg could bring a tonne of attention and hype to south Florida.

Deep in my heart of hearts though, I could see them both taking a significant paycut to play together somewhere that has a chance of winning a cup. It's too hard to tell how things will shake down right now, but signing two players of this calibre will be very tough for any team that already has some great players on board.

Joe Thornton is not happy with the Boston Bruins. It's been a few years since Joe has been happy in Boston, ever since they started trading all the players that were good, and since they started bashing him in the media, while he was playing with torn cartiledge in his rib. And now this. A 5 year offer, which is worth less than his qualifying offer would have been. Joe's agent is questioning publicly if Boston knows just how good Thornton actually is. The relationship between Joe and the Bruins will come to an end after this season and Joe will test the free agent waters, which will lead him to Toronto most likely. He has expressed interest to play there, and there is not a player on the Leafs I wouldn't move out of the way to get big Joe. The ownership is Boston just doesn't get it. They hit the gold mine with Patrice Bergeron, lets see how they screw that one up in a couple of years.

And now, my beloved Leafs. What a tangled web they weave, and things are looking a little messy in Toronto. Scotty asked me if the Leafs can get under the cap and still make the playoffs, and I'm telling all of you here right now- absolutely. The Leafs core group of Sundin, Belfour, McCabe, Tucker, Kaberle and Stajan is a pretty good one to have already under contract. Due to their age, you can now sign Joe Nieuwendyk and Gary Roberts for very cheap, especially since they both want to play in Toronto. I don't want to see an offer tendered to Alex Mogilny just because he's too injury prone and too expensive. If you have to give him more than 1.5, just let him go. I'm not worried about Ed Belfour. He's had a whole year to rest that tender back, and his style of goaltending doesn't require him to be insanely athletic a la Marty Brodeur. Belfour is a cerebral goalie, who relies on great decision making and sound technique. Even with smaller equipment, he'll get his body in front of that puck. Jeff O'Neill will come to T.O. and singlehandly replace Antropov, Ponikarovsky and Domi. Domi will likely sign with the Pens to become enforcer for Mario and Sid the Kid. The Leafs need to sign Pilar, bring up Coliacovo, Wellwood and possibly Brendan Bell. If they can get Leetch for a small fee, that's great, but I hope they don't break the bank for him. There has been a lot of rumblings that Jason Allison is coming to Toronto, which I support whole heartedly, and if the Big E lands here, I don't think you pay him more than 1 million. He's a liability at this point in his career, and shouldn't try to steal anyone's money. Come to Toronto for cheap Eric, it's your home and if you play well you'll be a god again.

The big problem in Toronto comes in two years or so. When Joe and Gary just can't do it anymore and Mats is getting on in years there are no young guys on the way up. So the free agent market is where to do it. Get O'Neill and Allison this year, Thornton and a solid third D man next year and the team is right back on track. Even more importantly they have to draft well this year and next year, and every year from now on. No more Alex Steens, no more Luca Cerada, and if you get another guy like Brad Boyes, don't trade him away for an Owen Nolan.

Another Canadian team to look at is the Edmonton Oilers. There is a lot of money for the Oilers to work with, the only question mark is how they will attract a big name player to come out west. It's not even that the Oilers have a bad team, they're just stuck in the middle. They might make the playoffs, but then again they might not, and that isn't exactly screaming "cup contender!" at any free agents. But on the positive side they may be able to lure someone out there with the promise of building around them, and making them the man. The Oilers have a great captain, and a solid young team, but they have a lot of role players, meaning the right piece of scoring and consistency could make them more dangerous. That being said, they still need a big year in goal from Jussi Maarkenen, because right now, he's a large question mark.

The suspense in the Scott Niedeymayer sweepstakes got a little thicker when he announced he'd play for any time willing to give him the max. I think that's media smoke screens, because Scotty is bred to win, not to just collect paycheques. Still no definite rumours as to where he'll go. Obviously Vancouver is an option, Calgary is close to Cranbrook, but they don't need him on D. They need forwards. He won't likely land in Toronto, because the books just wouldn't balance that way. The draft is coming up, and my next post will come Saturday night. No need to do a preview, just an analysis of the outcome.

Posted by Jon at 7:44 AM | | e-mail me

Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Well Sidney is going to Pittsburgh, and it's been reported that in the first hour after the draft lottery there was a significant increase in season ticket sales and that the phones are ringing off the hooks down in Steeltown. Some folk are disappointed that Crosby didn't hit a major hockey market, but truthfully, I don't think Pittsburgh is a bad place for Crosby at all. We don't have to worry about him not being on a national market, because he would have ended up in the national market no matter where he played. The NHL will market the hell out of him, as they should.

Now, in an ideal world would I have picked the Penguins for Crosby? Of course not, I'm a hockey philosopher, but I'm not an idiot. I think the cities that needed him the most were Chicago and the Rangers in that order. Both teams are original 6 teams that are faltering, but Chicago would have been perfect because there is no way the NHL would have let Chicago ownership get away with another year of no television deal in their city. Plus Chicago has a Sutter behind the bench, an emerging young star in Tuomo Ruutu, great young defense prospects like Seabrook, Barker and Anton Babchuk. So Sidney would have been sweet icing on a big cake in Chicago.

New York might have been good for Sidney from a financial marketing standpoint, but I don't think it would have been the best thing for his career. Think about it. Sidney Crosby might save the NHL. But if you put him in a position where he has to do everything and be everything right away, then you're setting him up for disaster. Pittsburgh is a good fit because he is a part of the spotlight, and things are expected of him, but he is still not THE GUY. The buck doesn't fall squarely on his shoulders. Now Scotty is sitting there, reading this saying, the Rangers have Jagr, and maybe Messier. And I agree if the Rangers resign Messier, New York may have been suitable, but under no circumstance do I ever want any young player learning about leadership and professionalism from Jaromir 'I'm too good to practice/win' Jagr. New York has a history of asking too much, too soon from it's young players.

There is an added benefit to Crosby landing in Pittsburgh. He will restore the struggling franchise that only a year ago was close to re-locating, and I know my buddy Scotty loves to talk about karma. Well this is Mario Lemieux getting his due. He was owed a lot of money by a team that had seemingly no future. Mario could've demanded his money and folded the team, but instead took ownership and stuck it out. Persistance pays off. I'm happy for him and even happier that I don't have to see Crosby in a Mighty Ducks uniform.

As for the struggling markets, Atlanta will be fine, they've got a boatload of young talent all ready on the team, as well as young guys coming up like Braydon Cobourn and goalie Kari Lehtonen. Tampa Bay is fine, they'll sell out every game. Florida desperately needs to have a good free agent season, as well as at least an improvement from last seasons record. They don't need to make the playoffs right away, but they do need to show everyone that their young players will be a force to be reckoned with before they lose Luongo. They made the right move by getting Keenan and Martin down there. Carolina is a scary market, and I think they'll be first to fold.

This season will hold the emergence of many talented young up and comers. Alexander Ovechkin, who was and is overshadowed by Sidney Crosby is coming over for sure. Good on him. He's turning down a nice living in Russia to make a little under a million in North America. I still am uncertain on all the hype about him. He is extremely, extremely, excessively gifted with skill and size, but I have yet to see all this evidence of him being gritty and physical. In the World Junior tournament this past Christmas, Ovechkin played well in a weak pool, but didn't physically dominate any of the competition, and these were teenagers. In fact, in the Gold Medal game against Canada, it was Ovechkin who was physically intimidated and dominated, forced to sit out the second half of the game after being knocked around a little bit.

Ovechkin has all the tools, but his success will hinge on whether or not he can display the heart and determination that is required to have the respect of his peers. I can see the comparisons to Kovalchuk in the area of offensive agressiveness, but I think Ilya demonstrates a much, much more advanced two way game, and he has also grown up a lot in his two years in the NHL. Alexander, put your big boy pants on, because you've got a lot to prove this year. Take advantage of all the pressure on Sidney and show us what you can do. Unfortunately for Alex, there is not much to work with in Washington.

Posted by Jon at 6:56 AM | | e-mail me

Monday, July 25, 2005

This 6 day buyout opportunity is the best thing that could happen for a lot of GM's. Some of these old contracts that are just devouring cap space and limiting potential growth for the future. For instance, John Leclair and Tony Amonte have been bought out clearing up over 10 million dollars of cap space for a Flyers team that has good young players joining the ranks in Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, and they have kept solid veterans in the ranks like Keith Primeau, Michael Handzus and Jeremy Roenick.

Do you think Phoenix isn't thrilled with the idea of clearing up the 2.85 million that would have gone to Brian Savage? Mike Modano is expressing his interest and Phoenix will save money if they sign him, and be able to make a splash in the free agent market. A nice combination of experience and skills is being assembled in the desert.

The buyout rears it's ugly head on good players too. Sure Savage, Amonte and LeClair were over the hill, making way too much money for what they were, but what about the players who still have something to offer, but were just making too much thanks to their signing with a big market team. Ray Whitney is a solid player, but there are just too many other financial obligations on a deep Detroit team. Why pay Derian Hatcher almost 5 million when a younger Jiri Fischer can do the job for 1.3 mil?

This can work in favour of other teams as well. If I was Mike Keenan in Florida, I'd pick up Darren McCarty from Detroit. He's just been put on waivers, and it would instantly give your team grit and championship experience. Florida has great young players on the ice, and they'll need someone to show them what it takes. McCarty can give you a part of that for around a million dollars.

The free agent market opens up for the free for all on August 1, and it will be interesting to see who is going to take advantage of the buyers market. Instead of players just going to the highest bidder, values will be pretty well determined, and unless some GM makes a horrible over offer, most guys will be forced to look at a situation they're going into, and most GM's will look to fill specific needs. For instance, with Montreal having to sign Dagenais, Ryder, Ribeiro and Theodore as well as Alexei Kovalev, do they still need to keep Saku Koivu? It's a chance for Bob Gainey to keep him at a low price, and that is still a positive thing because he is a staple in Montreal's community.

August 1 things get crazy. The real big story to me is how Colorado will manage to keep Adam Foote and Peter Forsberg, because it seems like simple mathematics disallows it. So soon I'll start the Forsberg watch, and the Scotty Niedermayer watch, and I'll weigh in on the best possible free agent situations in a couple of days.

Posted by Jon at 7:03 PM | | e-mail me

Friday, July 22, 2005

With the NHL on the dawn of a completely new era, what better time to weigh in on a situation as relevant and significant as the first ever 30 team draft lottery. It is true that this is bigger than just the 'Sidney Crosby Sweepstakes', as this years draft carries a wide variety of depth and talent. Today shapes the destiny's of all the teams, and the entire league as an entity.

I live near Toronto, and grew up a Leafs fan. This draft carries importance like none previous, as the Leafs are faced with several rebuilding possibilities. With a flooded free agent market, some space in the cap providing a few buyouts, and a talented group of young draftees, the Leafs have an amazing oppurtunity to build for the future, while still having a chance to win the Stanley Cup that's eluded them for so long.

I'd like to see them let Brian Leetch walk, and go after Scott Neidermayer. Leetch is a world class defenseman, but he is getting long in the tooth, and Scotty just came off that big Norris trophy a season ago. Providing the Leafs are able to buy out Owen Nolan, they should be able to commit that money to Neidermayer. I'd like to see them draft a defenseman this year. If we get slated mid first round, go after Ryan Parent. He's a skilled, steady defenseman, and a kid you could build around. Give Scotty someone to mentor.

30. Tampa Bay Lightning- Very appropriate.
29. Florida Panthers- can't help but feel bad for the Panthers. They got screwed.
28. Dallas Stars- no consequence
27. Colorado Avalance- ditto
26. Calgary Flames- This is fine on the surface, when you look at the Calgary Flames as defending cup finalists, but this team needs to add depth, and really wanted to pick higher than 26.
25. Edmonton Oilers- Very badly needed to be higher than 25th. Need goaltending and scoring.
24. St. Louis Blues- no consequence
23. New Jersey Devils- New Jersey will undoubtedly do more with this pick than any other team would have. Their front office management and scouting is second to no one.
22. Boston Bruins- They are going to need a good draft here. No one wants to play in Boston anymore. Murray is unrestricted, Thornton will be next year, and if they want to hold onto Raycroft, they'll have to spend a little money down the road.
21. Toronto Maple Leafs- OUCH! Really wanted to be higher than this, especially this draft year.
20. Philadelphia Flyers- Like a slap in the face to Leafs fans, I hate the Flyers picking ahead of us.
19. Detroit Red Wings- They don't draft often, but they can't complain about this spot.
18. Nashville Predators- Critical draft for a young team that just made the playoffs and want to continue growth.
17. Phoenix Coyotes- So much for the Wayne and Sid fantasy. They'll improve significantly this year though.
16. New York Rangers- Needed to be much higher than this.
15. New York Islanders- Needed to be much much higer than this.
14. Washington Capitals- Their team sucks, but you can get a good player this year at this spot.
13. Buffalo Sabres- Can't complain about the 13 spot.
12. San Jose Sharks- These guys must be elated. After coming so close to the finals, they pick 12th. What a great oppurtunity for the Sharks.
11. Los Angeles Kings- Great chance to get another building block to go with Frolov, Cammaleri.
10. Vancouver Canucks- This is awesome for Vancouver. They already have a great team, time to add a top level talent.
9. Ottawa Senators- Ditto. Get a goalie, or you suck.
8. Atlanta Thrashers- They have awesome prospects already, add a guy who will fit in a crucial role.
7. Chicago Blackhawks- i wanted Sidney here, to help restore an original 6 team. But 7th is a great spot to choose.
6. Columbus Blue Jackets- Sidney and Rick, would've been sick.
5. Montreal Canadiens- The last canadian team hits the board, and they'll be pleased to pick 5th.
4. Minnesota Wild- Sidney would have been great here, but they will get a great prospect here.
3. Carolina Hurricanes- They need all the help they can get, especially witn O'Neill possibly looking to walk.
2. Anaheim Mighty Ducks-It's probably for the best, cause seeing Crosby in their uni's would suck. Would've been nice to see Crosby, Perry and Getzlaf in two or three years.
1. Pittsburgh Penguins- Well, Mario, merry Christmas. Sid the Kid falls into your lap. A great young goalie, and two young potential superstars, means you get some good free agents this summer. Make your team a contender- now.

When all the buyouts start, things will get interesting. It's fun to see what teams want to make some big moves and really shake things up, and really interesting to see who gets left outside because they're overpaid. I'll check back in soon.

Posted by Jon at 12:54 PM | | e-mail me